WINNERS
Houston Astros: One year after the Astros rightfully became a laughingstock for their mangling of the draft, it all came up Houston on Monday night. Last year, they failed to sign the top overall pick, Brady Aiken, after a dispute over his medical records. The ugly public squabble also cost them Jacob Nix, a top prep right-hander whose agreed-upon signing bonus became impossible to pay once Houston lost the bonus pool money associated with Aiken’s pick.
The mess became more palatable Monday night. In a draft with three to four players thought to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class, the Aiken debacle netted them the No. 2 pick, which they used to nab LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. Choosing high school slugger Kyle Tucker with their fifth pick helped the Astros to presumably save signing bonus money, which allowed them to gamble on high-upside, tough-to-sign prep outfielder Daz Cameron – son of longtime big leaguer Mike – with the 37th pick, a competitive balance choice they acquired in a trade with the Marlins.
If the Astros can sign them all, the Aiken debacle helped them land three of the 10 best prospects in the draft. Even if this is regarded as a very weak draft, that’s a haul.
Their draft record received a boost, too, as they summoned 2012 No. 1 pick Carlos Correa – now an elite shortstop prospect who wasn’t close to a consensus top choice at the time – to the major leagues to make his debut for a surprising, first-place club.
The Astros were an embarrassment for years. Those times appear to be ending, if they are not over right now. Is that because of General Manager Jeff Lunhow’s plan and smarts? Or because if you are bad enough for long enough, the system will not let you fail? (The Nationals, who turned 205 losses over two years into Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, know something about that.) Certainly, the system helped the Astros.
The Dodgers’ pitching supply: The Dodgers entered Monday night with one of the deepest cadres of top-shelf minor league pitching, headlined by 18-year-old lefty Julio Urias and right-hander Grant Holmes. They turned a strength into a surplus. First they nabbed Vanderbilt power right-hander Walker Buehler with their own pick, 23rd overall. The Dodgers also benefited from a pitcher’s slide, taking Louisville right-hander Kyle Funkhouser with the 35th pick, a compensatory choice they received when Hanley Ramirez signed with the Red Sox. Funkhouser, advised by Scott Boras, may have gone in the top 15-20 picks if not for concerns about his signability. With all the front-office brainpower in Los Angeles, they’re still building in the mold of Stan Kasten, an advocate of building through homegrown pitchers since his days in Atlanta.
Vanderbilt: Nashville’s where you go to see if what is said is so. It is also apparently where you go if you want to become a first-round selection. Three Commodores went in the first round: shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall to the Diamondbacks, right-hander Carson Fulmer eighth to the White Sox and right-hander Buehler 23rd to the Dodgers. For all three players, a good day just got better. The defending NCAA champions beat Illinois, 4-2, to return to the College World Series.
LOSERS
Brady Aiken: At the deadline to sign last year, Aiken had verbally agreed to a $5 million signing bonus as the No. 1 overall pick. But after the Astros discovered a troubling medical report, they reneged on their offer. Aiken subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery. The Indians picked him at No. 17, which carries a slot value of $2.4 million. The system that worked so well for Houston this year doomed Aiken.
While Aiken lost bonus money, though, he may have won in the long run by ending up with Cleveland. The Indians have been on the forefront of developing pitchers, hiring unconventional and innovative coaches for their minor league system. They have also been open to new ideas and flexible in accommodating training methods, as seen with Trevor Bauer, who never fit with the old-school Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Speaking of the Diamondbacks: The 2014 season was the wrong time to be terrible. The Diamondbacks earned (or, rather, “earned”) this year’s top pick by losing 98 games in 2014. The problem is, they got to pick at the top of a draft most experts and evaluators regard as one of the worst classes in memory. Swanson is a nice prize, but the draft on paper lacks players who have the potential to be superstars. The Diamondbacks did seem to do well with their second-round pick, getting TCU lefty Alex Young, projected to go in the mid-30s, with the 43rd overall choice.
The system. We already addressed how the Astros exploited loopholes in the current draft rules, but other nonsense consequences littered the draft’s first night, too. The Cardinals, one of baseball’s soundest healthiest franchises, received a competitive balance pick, which they used to take towering high school right-hander Jake Woodford. The Braves’ used their competitive balance pick to high school third baseman Austin Riley, who by the time he reaches the majors will play in a brand new, taxpayer-bought stadium in one of America’s largest cities. If MLB wants to help teams at a perceived disadvantage, let them throw around their resources in the most efficient way and scrap the contrived bonus pools and slot values.
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